Latest betting odds for Game 4 of the NBA Finals reveal surprising underdog advantage

2025-11-11 11:00

As I scanned the latest betting odds for Game 4 of the NBA Finals this morning, my coffee nearly went cold from surprise. The numbers staring back at me showed something I haven't seen in weeks - the underdog carrying a genuine advantage. Having covered basketball for over a decade, I've learned to read between the lines of these odds, and what they're telling us today goes against everything we've witnessed in this series so far.

The conventional wisdom heading into these Finals had the defending champions as clear favorites, and through three games, they've mostly lived up to that billing. But something shifted after that stunning Game 3 upset where the underdogs, written off by nearly every analyst including myself, pulled off what many considered impossible. Now the sportsbooks are showing the underdog at +2.5 with moneyline odds of +130, while the favorites sit at -150. These aren't just numbers - they represent a fundamental shift in how professional bettors and the market overall perceive this matchup. I've seen underdogs get favorable spreads before, but the combination of factors here - the location, the momentum swing, and the psychological elements - creates what I believe could be one of the most mispriced games in recent Finals history.

What makes these latest betting odds for Game 4 of the NBA Finals so compelling isn't just the numbers themselves, but the context surrounding them. The underdog team's resilience has become the story of this series, and their mentality reminds me of several championship teams I've covered throughout my career. When I heard team captain Galang's post-game comments after their Game 2 collapse, something clicked for me. "Bounce back lang talaga yung kailangan namin ngayon eh. Hindi kami kailangang mag-dwell du'n sa big loss namin. Kailangan naming ma-redeem sarili namin," Galang told reporters. That translation - "We just need to bounce back today. We don't need to dwell on our big loss. We need to redeem ourselves" - captures exactly why this team presents such value as underdogs. They're not carrying the weight of expectation in the same way the favorites are, and in high-stakes games, that psychological freedom can be worth more than any statistical advantage.

I reached out to my contacts in the analytics community, and the consensus confirms what the odds suggest. Dr. Marcus Chen, a sports statistician I've consulted for years, shared some fascinating data with me. "When we look at teams facing elimination in the Finals who were underdogs by 3 points or more in the previous game, they've covered the spread 68% of the time since 2005," he explained. "But what's more interesting is that when you add the variable of a double-digit loss in the previous game, that coverage rate jumps to 74%. The market consistently undervalues the bounce-back potential of talented teams coming off embarrassing performances."

Having watched every minute of this series, I can tell you the eye test supports the numbers. The underdogs have found something in their bench rotation that wasn't there earlier in the series. Their second unit is outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions in the last six quarters - a dramatic improvement from the -4.7 they posted in the first two games. Meanwhile, the favorites are showing subtle signs of fatigue. Their transition defense, typically among the league's best, has allowed 1.24 points per fast break opportunity in Game 3 compared to their season average of 0.89. These might seem like minor details, but in a series this tight, they're the difference between lifting the trophy and planning vacation.

The injury situation plays heavily into these odds as well. The favorites are listing their starting power forward as questionable with that nagging ankle sprain, and even if he plays, he won't be at 100%. I've seen this movie before - a key player gutting through injury in the Finals only to become a defensive liability. Meanwhile, the underdogs are finally healthy after dealing with their own injury concerns earlier in the playoffs. Their center, who missed most of the conference finals, is now playing his best basketball of the postseason, averaging 18.3 points and 12.7 rebounds over his last three games.

What really convinces me about this underdog advantage goes beyond statistics and into the intangible elements that define championship basketball. The pressure dynamics have completely flipped. Everyone expects the favorites to close this out, while the underdogs are playing with what I like to call "competitive freedom." They've already exceeded expectations by reaching the Finals, they've proven they can beat this team by taking Game 3, and now they're playing with house money. That mentality, combined with the very public doubt they've faced throughout these playoffs, has forged a resilience that's evident in their body language and late-game execution.

The betting public hasn't fully caught up to this reality yet. As of this morning, 63% of moneyline bets are still coming in on the favorites, creating what sharp bettors would call "line value" on the other side. This discrepancy between public betting percentages and actual line movement tells me the professionals are heavily backing the underdogs, while recreational bettors stick with the big names and the reputation. I've made this mistake myself earlier in my career - favoring the team that "should" win rather than the team that's positioned to win.

When Galang spoke about redemption after their Game 2 collapse, it wasn't just typical athlete speak. I've been around enough locker rooms to recognize when a sentiment is genuine versus when it's just providing quotes for reporters. There's a different energy around this team right now, one that reminds me of the 2011 Mavericks or the 2016 Cavaliers - teams that embraced the underdog role and used it to fuel their championship runs. The latest betting odds for Game 4 of the NBA Finals aren't just reflecting this shift - they're amplifying it, creating a fascinating disconnect between perception and reality that we rarely see at this stage of the playoffs.

As tip-off approaches, I find myself more convinced than ever that the value lies with the underdogs. The combination of psychological factors, tactical adjustments, and market inefficiencies creates what I consider to be one of the strongest underdog positions I've seen in recent Finals history. The public might still be backing the favorites, but the smart money - and my own analysis - suggests we're in for another surprise. Sometimes the odds tell you more about how people think than about what will actually happen on the court, and in this case, they're revealing a surprising underdog advantage that could define how we remember this series.