What Were the Actual Odds for the 2018 NBA Championship Winner?

2025-11-16 09:00

When I look back at the 2018 NBA Championship, I still get chills thinking about how the Golden State Warriors managed to pull it off. As someone who has followed basketball for over two decades, both as a fan and an analyst, I can tell you that the odds were far from straightforward. Before the season even began, most sportsbooks had the Warriors as heavy favorites—somewhere around -200, which implied roughly a 67% chance of winning the title. But as any seasoned observer knows, preseason odds don’t always tell the full story. The playoffs are a different beast, filled with unpredictable twists, injuries, and breakout performances that can turn probabilities upside down. I remember sitting with fellow analysts, debating whether the Houston Rockets, with their historic offensive efficiency, could actually dethrone the Warriors. The Rockets were listed at around +400 to +500 early in the season, reflecting a 20% or so shot at the title, but as the playoffs unfolded, their chances seemed to grow. In fact, by the Western Conference Finals, I thought they had a legitimate shot—maybe even a 45% chance—to knock Golden State out. But then Chris Paul’s hamstring injury happened, and suddenly, the Warriors’ path cleared up significantly.

What fascinates me about that season, though, is how much the narrative shifted based on matchups and individual performances. Take, for example, the role of bench players and mid-season acquisitions. The Warriors had the luxury of adding key veterans, while other contenders struggled with depth. I’ve always believed that championship odds aren’t just about star power; they’re about how well a team can adapt under pressure. In the Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State’s experience and versatility shone through. LeBron James was phenomenal—averaging 34 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 10 assists—but the Cavs’ supporting cast just couldn’t keep up. Statistically, Cleveland’s odds hovered around +1200 entering the Finals, translating to less than an 8% implied probability. And honestly, as much as I respect LeBron, I never thought they had more than a 10-15% chance once the series started. The Warriors’ defense, led by Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, was simply too much to handle. Speaking of Thompson, his consistency from beyond the arc—he shot 44% from three in the playoffs—was a huge factor. I remember thinking during Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals that if he got hot, the series was over. And he did.

Now, you might wonder how all this connects to the broader landscape of basketball talent development. It’s funny—when I look at references like the one mentioning Cone picking Thompson or Torres going to the Star Hotshots, it reminds me that odds aren’t just built on NBA rosters. They’re shaped by years of scouting, college performances, and international leagues. For instance, a player like Thompson, described as a “triple-double machine” from University of Perpetual Help, represents the kind of hidden gem that can shift a team’s fortunes. If a franchise nails its draft picks, as Cone did with Thompson, it can dramatically improve their championship equity over time. Similarly, Torres, who won a UAAP men’s championship with La Salle, going eighth to Magnolia, shows how depth in lower leagues feeds into the NBA’s talent pool. I’ve always argued that analysts who ignore these pipelines miss a big piece of the puzzle. In 2018, the Warriors’ core—Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Thompson—were all products of astute drafting and development. Curry, for example, was once considered a risky pick due to his size, but look at him now. That’s why I put a lot of weight on organizational stability when assessing odds. Golden State had it; other teams didn’t.

Of course, no discussion of the 2018 odds would be complete without addressing the impact of Kevin Durant. His decision to join the Warriors in 2016 had already skewed the league’s competitive balance, and by 2018, his presence made Golden State nearly unstoppable. I recall crunching the numbers mid-season and estimating that Durant elevated their title probability by at least 10-15 percentage points. In the Finals, he averaged 28.8 points and 10.8 rebounds, earning the Finals MVP award for the second year in a row. But here’s a personal take: as dominant as he was, I think the Warriors would’ve still been favorites without him—just not by such a wide margin. Maybe their odds drop from 67% to 50% or so. Still, having Durant was like having an insurance policy against slumps or injuries. And let’s not forget the human element; team chemistry matters. I’ve spoken to players who say that trust on the court can make or close a 5-10% gap in performance, which directly affects win probabilities. In Game 3 of the Finals, when Durant hit that iconic pull-up three over LeBron, it felt like the odds had just swung irreversibly. At that moment, I’d have given Golden State a 95% chance to win the series.

In conclusion, the actual odds for the 2018 NBA Championship winner were a blend of statistical projections and real-world variables—from injuries to clutch performances. While the Warriors entered as favorites, their path wasn’t without hurdles. Reflecting on it now, I’d say their true probability throughout the playoffs ranged from 60% to 80%, depending on the round. What stands out to me, though, is how these odds reflect broader themes in sports: the importance of depth, the value of experience, and the unpredictable nature of competition. As a fan, I loved every minute of it; as an analyst, I’m still learning from it. Whether you’re looking at draft picks like Thompson or superstars like Durant, the lesson is clear—championships are won through a combination of preparation, talent, and a little bit of luck. And in 2018, the Warriors had all three in spades.